On August 12, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment hosted the “Conference on Promoting Agro-Forestry-Fishery Exports 2025.”

Export performance (Jan–Jul 2025)

According to the Ministry, in the first seven months of 2025, total agro-forestry-fishery export value is estimated at USD 39.68 billion, up 14.7% year-on-year.

• In 2024, 10/11 core items posted value growth (except cassava).
• In Jan–Jul 2025, 8/11 items still grew: coffee, rubber, pepper, cashew, cassava and cassava products, livestock products, seafood, wood and wood products.
• Three declining items since the start of 2025:
• Rice: USD 2.8B, down 16.3%
• Tea: USD 116.9M, down 12.3% (decline began June 2025)
• Fruits & vegetables: USD 3.84B, down 1.1%

By market, exports kept momentum to the U.S. and grew strongly in the EU, Japan, Middle East, and Africa; growth was modest to China and declined in ASEAN.

Enterprises and industry associations have proactively maintained and expanded exports of key items across markets, and accelerated orders for advantaged goods such as wood products, seafood, coffee, pepper, cashew in traditional markets (U.S., EU, Japan), while shifting more fruits, vegetables and rice to Africa and the Middle East where potential is rising.

Proactive contract execution to the U.S., market diversification, and re-engaging traditional high-potential markets supported solid export growth in Jan–Jul 2025.

Outlook: headwinds in late 2025

Global growth faces pressure per WTO, OECD, IMF outlooks: geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, trade tensions, and digital-driven supply-chain restructuring.

Key challenges:

• Traditional markets are tightening trade barriers; EU demand is soft; China shows economic volatility.
• Ensuring raw-material supply for processing/export may create longer-term impacts into 2026.
• Non-essential goods (e.g., indoor furniture) may see weaker demand as end-prices rise.
• New market access remains difficult due to SPS and TBT measures, stricter origin tracing and food safety controls.
• Lower consumer demand can pressure prices, hurting export value of some staples (e.g., rice, fruits & vegetables).

Opportunities: maximize 17 FTAs

Despite headwinds, Vietnam retains advantages in items with large market shares, stable quality, deep processing capacity, and competitive costs—notably cashew, pepper, pangasius, frozen shrimp.

Opportunities include:

• Global supply-chain reconfiguration favoring emerging economies like Vietnam.
• Accelerated transition to sustainable, low-carbon agriculture with traceability and international standards, reinforcing importer confidence.
• Wider market access thanks to 17 FTAs already in effect—beyond traditional markets (U.S., EU, Japan, China) to Middle East, Africa, and ASEAN.
• Supportive external relations and active market-opening protocols for high-potential, specialty Vietnamese products.

2025 targets and required pace

The Ministry targets USD 65B in export value for 2025 (+3.9% vs. 2024). With USD 39.2B estimated in Jan–Jul 2025, the last five months need to deliver over USD 25B to meet or exceed the annual target.

Policy directions (now–year-end 2025)

• Open markets & boost exports to large, traditional destinations while maximizing FTAs.
• Scale advantages: push products where Vietnam leads; develop potential categories (e.g., processed livestock products).
• Strengthen domestic consumption, diversify product chains, and increase value-addition.
• Set item-specific and market-specific targets; ensure close coordination among ministries, localities, industry associations, and enterprises.
• Prioritize brand protection and market share expansion in traditional markets; grow in EU, Middle East, the Americas, Africa, ASEAN.
• Accelerate market access for core groups like fresh fruit, and nurture high-potential categories with room to grow (e.g., livestock products).